US Vice President Kamala Harris holds a campaign rally. It is her seventh visit to North Carolina this year and her 15th trip to the state since taking office in Fayetteville NC, United States on July 18, 2024.
Peter Zay | Anadolu | Getty Images
Democrats were already headed for a “crushing defeat” in November, but now they have a chance, said Ian Bremmer, chairman and founder of Eurasia Group.
“They have changed [this race] “There is no threat, and President Biden has given the Democrats a fair chance,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.
Harris is now on a sliding scale toward the Democratic nomination, though she still needs to win a majority of delegates before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.
While there are other candidates who want to enter the fray, “it is very clear that Kamala Harris is the overwhelming favorite to be the nominee,” Bremmer said.
If Harris wins the nomination, she would offer Democrats a “total reset,” Steven Okun, founder and CEO of APAC Advisors, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
“If the Democrats can come out of this convention with one voice, full of energy and enthusiasm, they have a good chance of winning in November,” he said.
Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” that Harris would be in a “strong position to win the upcoming election” in a showdown with Trump.
He will wait until the Democratic convention to make his official prediction.
Harris wrote in a post on the social media platform X that she wanted to “earn and win” the nomination while uniting Democrats.
According to experts who spoke to CNBC, Harris has several advantages over her former running mate.
As Republicans gain ground on the economy, inflation and immigration, abortion is a key issue where she will have an edge, Okun said. Harris has been vocal on reproductive issues as the first female vice president.
“The fact is that Biden and Trump are too old to serve another four years and that is now the biggest vulnerability for Trump,” said Bremmer of Eurasia.
A recent poll found that about 85% of the public thought Biden was too old to serve another four years. The same poll found that 60% of Americans thought Trump was too old.
“You see a lot of enthusiasm for Harris, a younger, more vibrant, more energetic former prosecutor who could certainly do very well on the debate stage,” Bremmer added.
Bremmer pointed out that Harris also has some weaknesses. She’s “not super likable as a retail politician … That’s a vulnerability for her.” There are also some risks involved in running as a woman — the daughter of an Indian mother and a Jamaican father — in today’s America, he added.
On the other hand, she may be better positioned than Biden to turn away certain key demographics, including “women, young people and black voters,” Charles Myers, founder and CEO of Signum Global Policy, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
“It’s a completely new race. There’s a new candidate with a tremendous amount of unity and enthusiasm behind her,” he said.
Markets had increasingly priced in a Trump victory as his presidency was expected to bring tax cuts and tougher tariffs.
However, Myers said the race has fallen into “complete chaos” because Harris wants to present “a real challenge” to Trump.
“I would be very cautious and cautious about assuming that Trump just pulls out a win,” Myers said, adding that the names and asset classes associated with a Trump win could be considered risky in the short term.
Trump has said Harris would be easier to beat than Biden.
By the time the Democratic Party nominates her, Harris would have picked a running mate and likely secured the nomination. According to Myers, momentum could give her a lead in the polls.
According to Okun, two likely front-runners for Harris’ running mate are Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly. They come from key swing states and are seen as more moderate.
If Democrats fail to unite factions within the party, such as moderates and progressives, they will lose to the Republican Party, which is completely united around Trump, he added.
— CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.